Does Trump have an Iran strategy? Probably not, and doubtless he does not care…..
You can remove some of the Iranian leaders, but how will this change things?
The Revolutionary Guards and military have control of Iranian weapons – planes, armoured vehicles, guns. And with their corruption and exploitation of power they will not give up without a fight.
The people might protest, another ‘Arab Spring’, but will they win.
The Guards and military will be fighting not only for their privileged existence.but also to avoid retribution from the people – lynching and what have you.
What is the relevance of Franco? In the Spanish civil war, he had the military and the weapons and slowly ground down the opposition. He could have won in a shorter time frame, but chose to take his time to systematically destroy his opponents. Relatively unarmed civilians had no chance.
What will probably happen in Iran is that the most senior remaining Guard and/or military General will take control. They may install a puppet religious leader. The abuse of the people will continue.
And of course because Trump did not seek out Islamic support, sunni or shia, it looks like a Christian and Jewish assault on their religion. Publically or privately Iran will have sympathisers.
And they will need only one bit of luck to kill Christians and Jews and make this look like a very poor strategy
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