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Andrew – his options in life

He has some options about how he goes about his future life, from continuing denial to ‘making a clean breast of things’.  In practical terms his options look relatively limited.

Only he knows what further skeletons might be in the closet.  And he might not disclose them to anybody from whom he seeks advice. 

The first option is continual denial or say nothing (neither confirm not deny).  The trouble is that the Guiffre settlement looks dreadful – so saying nothing is not really an option – and denial (of everything) just does not ring true.

He could try going for the ‘I really can’t remember anything’ (not only does he not sweat, he also has memory problems….).  An oft used public relations strategy (it avoids perjury).  But nobody will believe he can’t remember private jets flight sharing with young women.

He could try offering to assist the police (Feds) in a public minded fashion.  This probably involves an admission regarding Guiffre – at the very least that he did in fact meet her.  But he’d have to admit to the flights and so on – presumably claiming that he thought all the girls were student girlfriends of Epstein’s daughter or whoever…… But he’s have to name some at least of the other men involved. If this was nothing but the truth, it might help rehabilitate him.

But clearly if one more significant thing emerged – a photo of him with a partially dressed girl for example, this option would explode in his face.  But if he doesn’t go for this option, it implies he is hiding something.

Full disclosure could conceivably be the way forward.  So to speak, get it all out on the table, before it becomes public anyway, with emails, pictures, videos and so on.  It is often said ‘follow the money’ – has Andrew paid for other massages, paid girls in a manner on the record, gifts, or whatever. 

The problem is that in America ‘underage’ sex is a significant offence (I think this could include ‘conspiring’ to traffic girls across State lines (Federal offence)).  And if he does not fully confess, he can be had for perjury too….. And presumably any argument about ‘Royal’ immunity has gone, even if anything happened while he was a  ‘Royal’?

He could flee to Abu Dhabi – but with no social circle/influence – and still face posible extradition.

He could follow the example of Gary Glitter, enjoy the company of young women in Vietnam – but far from his family, and no doubt followed everywhere by journalists…..

If he could manage a Welsh accent, maybe sheep farming in Patagonia could be a good solution (at least from Charles and William’s viewpoint. Only ‘purgatory’ would be further away….

He could opt for plastic surgery, a fitness course, and join the French  Foreign Legion, with a french name and passport in due course….. (unless rumbled by his arrogant attitude and so on…)

You could wonder about his mental health – what will he do.  His status has collapsed, no doubt he will blame others not himself.  But it wouldn’t surprise if his future role was mainly that of a depressed man, possibly with a degree of suicidal ideation…

And it should be noted, his settlement with Guiffre committed him to making some social amends.  Had he done that, volunteered, albeit difficult if the beneficial  causes would bring him in to contact with potentially vulnerable women – but he could have volunteered in a central London late night soup kitchen or homeless shelter.  Done with  humility, it could have improved his standing.

He could have offered his many spare rooms to the homeless, or people from Ukraine. 

If he took in Ukrainian families (with a chaperone or two!), he could have been seen helping get the kids to school, organising birthday  parties for the kids.  He could have helped fund getting the families together, as and when their fighting husbands got R&R breaks.

Maybe helped raise money for Ukraine’s fight – donated some of his own wealth – finessing his own military record. Funding, say, top of the range personal protection equipment, bullet proof jackets, the best helmets and boots.  Be seen supporting them on the ground.

Maybe even being seen to facilitate a ‘Xmas record’ – quietly in the background but visible – maybe thereby funding portable gas heaters and gas bottles to help Ukrainian families cope with their bitter winters.

 And Fergie could have been seen giving a hand, supporting the families, and thereby doing something positive for her reputation.

I t would have been a long haul, no ‘quick fix’.  But it might also have helped fill his life with something worthwhile.

But all of that is too late now, a  missed opportunity.  Presumably because of his sense of entitlement (and stupidity).

but are they on the inside or the outside……

I list below some recent stupidities in UK governance. It’s almost like we have a fifth column of foreigners bent on destroying us (or possibly a bit like Trump appearing to be in Putin’s pocket?). A Trojan Horse of destroyers invited through the gate……

Sadly, however, it appears that these problems are self-inflicted, courtesy of poor quality – low calibre – leaders.

This blog seems to almost write itself. The nonsenses are so in our face.

I list five below. The first comes from our Housing Minister, who was previously an Environment Minister.

When viewing a new ‘green’ house, he was shown a hot water cylinder in a cupboard. Incredibly he thought it was a heat pump. This really is scandalous. Where to start! Air source heat pumps are now more common – ‘obviously’ they process air to extract heat – this needs air flow, something not possible in a cupboard. They tend to look like big white shoeboxes (on edge), they look nothing like a hot water cylinder, so presumably he is in charge of encouraging people to use heat pumps, but has never seen one. He should have known that their location is an issue – not too close to neighbours, difficult to locate if you live in a flat, and so on. Nobody has ever suggested putting them in a cupboard to solve the location issue!

The second example is the Ajax armoured vehicle. The senior army officer (client) expressed concerned seven years ago about noise and vibration. He spent limited time in one, but sustained 20% hearing loss. It is apt to say he wasn’t listened too, There has been an almighty cover up. Everyone wanted to turn a blind eye to the problems.

It is now seven years late, a billion over budget, and one option now being considered is to scrap them.

It appears that the main problem might be the use of metal rather than rubber tracks. Rubber was felt not the best option. If addressed at the time, it may be that a third way would be possible, maybe a metal/rubber hybrid

My third example is the procurement of two aircraft carriers, without funding a full complement of aircraft, and destroyers/frigate to escort them. Can it really just be called stupid?

The other two examples come in the ‘green’ category. How on earth can you procure wind and solar without energy storage. Or pricing in the cost of storage or substituies? I live ‘off grid’ in terms of electricity. I bought solar panels, the ‘controller’ and batteries. The batteries are clearly crucial and non-optional. On a dark winter’s night, no sun, and frequently no wind…….. there’s no renewable supply, so are we supposed to sit in the dark?

Yet that is what ‘Mad Ed’ has done…..as have his predecessors…… And moreover he has to pay to turn off wind power at times, partly at least because it cannot be directed into storage…..

The fifth example is just as bad. I think it fair to say that electric cars are not entirely a good idea, but their ubiquity by 2030 – five years time – has been government policy.

Everybody knows that if this happens, if will ‘fry the grid’. There is not sufficient national electric grid capacity (let alone power) to meet this demand. Obviously it has not helped that AI has come from nowhere, and it’s demand for electicity for computer processing power is huge.

The responsible civil servant appears to be living in ‘cloud cuckoo land’. His probably optimistic view is that we need twice the equivalent of what has been built (pylons etc) in the last ten years and build it in the next five years.

In other words four times the quantity each year. Given the delays with procurement, planning permission and so on, this seems like wishful thinking. No doubt he’s hoping to have moved on to another job by 2030.

In summary, I despair……

We clearly lack people of talent to be our senior politician. The recent post holders evidence this. The current field is sparse – there’s nobody in Labour or Conservative parties at the moment that you could commend. Extreme right and left have dubious, or unproven at best, leaders, with various questionable packages of potential policies.

There is an alternative way forward. The English football team, one of our key ‘patriotic’ symbols, has appointed a German manager, as the best available.

I would suggest we approach an international head hunter to recruit the best of the best, globally, as our Prime Minister.

Our country is clearly in crisis, rudderless, decling rapidly, and needs a government of national unity. Parliament needs to unite, and agree to recruit the best as a Prime Minister to lead us, say for five years. Given that it is successful, they could then stand for election for a further term.

Who might fit the bill? Donald Tusk or Justin Trudeau would have quality and experience to offer. Maybe we could pursuade Barack Obama, ideally supported by Gavin Newsom. Possibly Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish leader.

I like the idea of agreeing a merger between the UK and Ukraine. This would also show our commitment to democracy, standing up to thugs. Bring back to life some great British qualities. Join NATO as merged country. Get on war footing, put troops in to Ukraine.

This would enable the appointment of Zelensky as our leader. Given the guts he has shown, he should be able to sort our problems, and tackle our vested interests without too much difficulty. I toyed with suggesting that we then send Kier Starmer to Kiev as deputy leader – but they would need and deserve better.

A personal choice would be Bruce Springsteen – he has some liking for our nation as the site of his first concerts outside of America.

He understands patriotism, he has great values. A man with integrity. I’d try to pursuade him to do the job, jointly with Patti Scialfa (they are strong together) and supported by George Clooney.

The final, and obvious choice, would be Jurgen Klopp. He’s good at tactics, he knows how to engage with and motivate people, he’s driven. We could ask him to bring his philosophy of gegenpress to bear: to push forward relentlessly, tackle the problems early, with a winning mentality.

Clearly some would need supportng expertise, but like Ronald Reagan, the skill is not in doing everything yourself, but in recruiting good people.

Any of the above would be infinitely better than the post Kier apocalypse that we face……..

Tomorrow I am writing a blog about the need for a better Prime Minister, and the need to make positive things happen.

I reference Klopp’s ‘gegenpress’ – the idea in football that was about being very positive, be proactive, be energetic, on the front foot.

I think it is a good simily for what the UK Government needs to do.

It seems that the Government – of left and right – have just got bogged down by circumstances. To be fair, from the 2008 global financial crisis, Brexit, Covid, the Ukraine impact on food costs, it has been much of a perfect storm.

Whether politicians are by nature second rate can be debated – see tomorrow’s blog – but they have all been reactive, off the pace (I hate slang like ‘behind the curve’ but it is an apt description). They have brought hardly any positive initiatives, and failed to grip the big issues.

So what actually needs doing? Basically it is about improving the economy.

It’s tempting to mention the welfare, pensions and demographic timebomb. This also highlights another problem – you really need to take a 20 year view to address this, rather than just fend it off before the next election. We simply need to decide what we can afford – say 10% of GDP, and make the discussion about how you split it up. It’s a hard truth, but if you go for a larger perentage, GDP will fall, and leave less in the pot to allocate…..

I think my best example is that of large projects. HS2, nuclear power stations, major road developments, and so on. Ship building, weapons, you name it Other countries do it quicker, we did similar things quicker in wartime.

If the life of your child depended on it, you would do it quicker.

So, the Prime Minister should decree that all such projects can only commence or continue if within a five year ‘start to completion’ time scale. The project manager can be given ten days to produce the critical path. The top auditors should be required – maybe ‘pro bono’ in the national interest – to send in (very) small teams to validate these timecales.

You can predict that the actual construction or engineering components are likely to be quite reasonable. The issues are probably procurement and contractual issues, rules and regulations, approvals, consultation.

The ‘gegenpress’ approach is that you cue up the start on site right away, get on with it, and leave the ‘bureaucrats’ to hang onto your coattails.

You could offer 10% bonuses to the contractor for an early finish, 10% penalty if late.

The major projects should have to report weekly to a ‘Prime Minister’s Unit – staffed maybe by military officers seconded for a period – they would be accountable to the Prime Minister, and any delays reported. There would be no tolerance or excuses for delays.

Third, there is no doubt that Brexit has had an adverse effect, with few benefits identifiable. We need to re-join Europe and expand our market for goods and services.

We need growth. In the private sector, goods and services (not in the ‘nanny state’). This needs investment, but also people with enthusiasm, inspired and innnovative people. Existing in a positive environment. I’ve argued for it elsewhere, but why not make all ‘growth’ tax free for five years. That would set the tone….

Finally, we need to make typical families better off. They have seen their net incomes at best stagnate. No wonder they are disenchanted with mainstream politics – it is doing nothing for them – and provoking what might be mainly ‘protest votes’ for extremists.

If I was Prime Minister, I would explain that we are determined to help them. Tell them that we will be cutting governent spend by 5% and putting it in their pocket. Many people would say this is wrong or too difficult, but, again, if your child’s life depended on it, it would suddenly be possible,,,,

Cut overseas aid, reduce the ‘green’ spend, cancel HS2. I love opera and ballet, but I would cancel all related government spend for the time being – it’s a luxury we can’t afford. Ditto arts spend, and any ‘woke’ initiatives. We appear to be funding PhD research in bizarre ‘social’ areas. Cut the hierarchy in the Military, ditto Police. I read that there are 5,000 people working in the Cabinet Office, you could start there. Then cut ‘Royal’ subsidies.

You could then talk to the people, the ‘workers’ at all levels, and explain the aims. You could add that when the economy starts growing, there will be a limited new fund for things like Overseas Aid and ‘culture’ about which they would be consulted.

I believe in the ‘free market’ and the incentive to compete, innovate, and offer excellent customer service.

In competitive markets, maybe with at least three significant businesses, my view is that bosses that succeed can reasonably be highly rewarded.

There is though in my mind a very strong contrast with less competitive markets. You can call these monopolies or quasi-monopolies.

The obvious example is the utility businesses. In effect no competition. There is no local competition, nor overseas competitors.

The government organisations are effectively in this same boat. This includes senior civil servants and goverment agencies. Likewise the NHS, and the BBC. Universities are another example.

None of these ‘Chief Eecutives’ face much if any competition.

However, in terms of pay, they try to argue about their ‘weighty responsibilities’ and how they need ‘special people’ in these roles.

It is however obscene to be paying some of these people in the order of half a million pounds per year, when really all they have to do is go through the motions. How often is it said that performance is not good enough and action taken?

Personally I would limit the pay in these roles to that of the Prime Minister. I feel confidant that should vacancies arise, you could find first rate candiates on this sort of pay.

Given that Finance Directors and H.R. Directors are often on 80% of Chief Executive pay, it would end the nonsnese of a BBC H.R, Director being paid three hundred thousand pounds a year…..

Traditionally, if you didn’t want to admit something, but denying it brought a risk of perjury – the solution was to claim you couldn’t remember….

At the moment a number of Trump’s senior staff are in an extremely difficult position – they are being asked to do things that are illegal.

When cross examined by Congress, they can’t admit the truth, but daren’t deny it.

For example Patel was asked if any FBI staff had been dismissed because of involvement in Jan 6 or impeachment investigations.

He made a bad mistake by saying ‘not for that reason alone’ which obviously implies it was part of the reason (and probably illegal).

He was then repeatedly asked if he had dismissed them partly for that reason.  He couldn’t be honest, and say yes, nor commit perjury. 

So he went for the oblique, depersonalised, response.  Phrases like ‘the FBI follows all proper procedures’, and so on. And then going off on a diversionery rant, about Biden’s FBI or whatever.

If something wasn’t the case he could just have said so.

So by so desperately trying to avoid answering the question directly, he was actually in effect admitting it…….

Tracks and weighs 38 tons

Ths vehicle is an utter debacle – with bad noise and vibration, it puts soldiers in hospital.

This is despite two layer ear protection.  It is excessively noisy even outside the vehicle. This cannot be part of the ‘military compact’.

How has this come about – possible explanations include:

Ego of a senior person

Preference for ‘in house’ engine

Corruption

DEI, H&S, bureaucratic restrictions. Maybe it had to be designed by a 50% female engineer team etc.

Procurement, legal and contract issues – maybe had to use an ‘European’ engine

Incredibly eight years late,  and a billion spent……..

We now have the issues of ‘sunk costs’  and further delays.

However, somebody needs to ‘bite the bullet’ and make the right decision.  Rolls Royce used to make engines that were so quiet in cars that you could hear the clock tick.  You could balance a ‘threepenny’ bit on the engine, and the vibration would not topple it.

There may be other issues, I read today that it has metal tracks, and rubber might be better…..

it must be possible to create a good product – what have other manufactures done?  Incidentally heads have to roll for this – proper disciplinary action and punishment.

And someone now needs to invoke ‘the dunkirk spirit’  – like building Spitfires – or making vaccines – personally I’d camp out at the factory, get the best engineers in, 24/7, have a prototype running in within three months, prove the principles, then churn them out with a real sense of urgency.  It may be just replacing the engines, not building the rest from scratch.   If I could come out of retirement and do this –  why can’t these supposed professionals?

King Charles has at long last taken action against Andrew. Andrew has become a ‘Commoner’ – just like you and me.

This should mean living like a Commoner, ending the life of privilege and entitlement.

So, when he moves to Sandringham, he needs to be allocated some accomodation – it’s not for him to choose – possibly four bedrooms. Small enough for him to manage.

His major pubic funding needs to end. He should be told that the King will kindly match the State Pension until he is of pensionable age, and he also has his naval pension. Around £30,000 per annnum. Possibly he should pay rent.

As such he will not be able to afford much by way of ‘staff’. The days of people running around after him, being insulted and condescended to, need to be over.

And who would work for him from chice anyway? This means that he can partially fill his days by making his bed, doing his own cooking, washing up and cleaning. Likewise laundry and the kinds of other task that are done by ‘Commoners’.

Likewise no security staff – so no help for him from them…..

He’ll obviously whine that he is used to more, a rather superior lifestyle, but he has blown that. It’s time for him to live an ‘ordinary’ life like the rest of us. And be seen to do so.

While he is about it, the King needs to a ddress the issue of Harry (and Meghan). Harry likewise is no longer a ‘Royal’ – he has chosen to walk away from that. He ha said he wants the life of a Commoner, not a Royal.

But, as they say, he is trying to have his cake and eat it. He recently met with British soldiers in Canada. He behaves as if he is still ‘Royalty’, somebody special. When in fact he has chosen to be ‘ordinary’. They appear to be wanting to do a quasi ‘Royal’ tour to Australia. I assume they still want to be treated with deference, as if he is still somebody special.

The King should deal with this, and remove their remaining titles. Make it clear he cannot call himslef a Prince, or a Duke. Meghan will have to stop be ‘annouced’ as ‘Her Duchess’, and signing as ‘Duchess’.

They have chosen the ‘Commoner life – they don’t want to do the Royal ‘hard yards’ (compare this with Princess Anne) – so they need to stop trying to exploit the historic Royal connection.

We say growth is a priority.  With the low forecasts, any growth would be a bonus. So why not really incentivise it?

Make growth tax free!

Would it not send a very clear message that the Government is committed to growth as a priority if it made it (more or less) tax free.  I’m surprised the ‘nudge unit’ haven’t suggested this.

We could announce that any growth now is (more or less) tax free. For five years.

For existing businesses, this would involve reporting on any growth areas – new markets, new products….. And it would be ‘net growth’, the increase on existing turnover.

For new businesses this would be everything…..

And this would be about new profits arising from growth…

Possibly you could charge tax on the first slice – equivalent to an inflation element (putting prices up is not ‘growth’).  This would give the government some benefit from growth.  Beyond that you could possibly charge a simple 10% tax, not much but more than what is presently anticipated. Likewise drop VAT to 10% on growth revenue. Possibly reinforce tax breaks on new capital investment.

This could create a really positive sentiment – ‘can do’ thinking – affirmng that the UK is open to business. It would make the UK attractive to foreign businesses and investors.

And what is there to lose….?

I am launching this blog – it’s a complicated process and I’m feeling my way technically.  Please bear with me!

I hope to offer interesting ideas on current issues, political, social, economic and so on.  With an emphasis on doing good, trying to make the world a better place.

I hope to make a success of this.  At university I met Arianna Stassinopulous – I was the proverbial ‘poor boy’ – she wore a different ‘haute couture’ designer dress for every debate when she was President of the Union – daughter of a Greek ship owner – and she went on to found Huffington Post… so I know what is possible…..

I will dedicate all of this to my wife.  We come from the UK and Brazil respectively, and are hoping to settle in Spain.  I feel as if we ought to be able to live wherever we want, but technically we are ‘immigrants’ and only conditionally welcome.  But hopefully happy days together in lovely Andalucia.

Blogs to follow!